Changes in climatic norms on the Southern coast of Crimea over the past 90 years

The article presents calculations of climatic parameters for the time series of 1931-2020, including three consecutive reference thirty-year periods (1931-1961, 1961-1990 and 1991-2020) to identify climatic changes on the Southern coast of Crimea. An analysis of trends in air temperature and precipitation, relative humidity, evaporation, humidification coefficients, characteristics of warm and frost-free periods is carried out. The study revealed a significant increase in temperature during the early spring and summer periods in recent decades. There was no significant increase in the duration of the active vegetation period with temperatures above 10°C, and the risk of plant damage due to late spring frosts persists due to the temperature levels in April and November. A significant increase in the sum of active air temperatures above 10°C, acceleration of vegetation growth and maturity of plants was observed. In summer months, there was a two to three-fold increase in the number of uncomfortable hot days for humans and plants with a maximum air temperature above 30°C, as well as an intensification of drought phenomena causing temperature and water stress in plants. Analysis of precipitation trends using the Mann-Kendall test showed a significant downward trend in April and August over the last thirty years and an upward trend in January. However, no statistically significant trends were identified for the entire 90-year period, either in individual months or over all for the year. The presented climate data for the 30-year reference period of 1991-2020 contain a stable warming trend, objectively characterize the actual specificity of the climate of the studied region, and can be considered as a modern climate norm for meteorological elements for the Southern coast of Crimea.

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