Goal. To analyze the current state of the Crimean pine forest communities and give a forecast of possible changes in the trend of global climatic changes. Materials and methods. The object of research is phytocenosis (nomenclature description of the association), described in the Yalta Amphitheater at an altitude of 1000 m above sea level. The packing density of species on gradients of environmental factors was calculated using the original Pover program. Unified information on the distribution of plant species along gradients of factor conditions and resource factors (illumination-shading, thermal mode, cryo mode, humidification, moisture variability, substrate acidity, salt regime (anionic composition), carbonate content, nitrogen content, particle size distribution (mechanical) composition (porosity) of the substrate) was obtained from the Ecodata database. Results. The community will become most vulnerable when the cenotic factor “lighting-shading” changes with a significant decrease in the amount of light entering the day surface. Succession rearrangements of phytocenoses can cause an increase in the average July temperature by 2.4 degrees, exceeding the tolerance level for a given phytocenosis. Other environmental factors and resource factors have a significant margin of safety.